Design and Application of a Prognostic Index of Low Birth Weight

Abstract

Introduction: Many factors in pregnant women are associated with higher risk in the birth of those born with low weight.
Objectives: To design and validate an easy-to-use prognostic index for the stratification of low birth weight risk, which serves as a complement to the clinical method in primary health care.
Methods: An observational, longitudinal, prospective, or cohort study was carried out in pregnant women treated in the health area of Guanabacoa municipality, from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2019 to apply a prognostic index of low birth weight, with clinical elements. Using the estimated logistic regression function, the probabilities of low birth weight in the estimation sample were
calculated, and this empirical distribution was divided into tertiles to find areas that would allow classifying pregnant women as low, medium and high risk of low weight (prognostic index).
Results: 85.7% of the pregnant women had low probability of low birth weight. 60.4% of the pregnant women were classified as patients with high probability of low birth weight, and of the patients classified as medium risk with low birth weight. Only 11 patients were not well classified by the prognostic index.
Conclusions: The constructed index showed adequate validity and consistency, and is useful for predicting the prognosis of low birth weight in pregnant women in the health area.